A Decision-Theoretic Framework of Strategic Consensus Formation: The Moderating Role of TMT Diversity Under Uncertainty

Abstract

This conceptual paper presents a dynamic, decision-theoretic framework for understanding how strategic consensus forms within Top Management Teams (TMTs) under conditions of uncertainty. The model treats consensus as an emergent outcome of iterative belief updating and boundedly rational judgment, moderated by the cognitive diversity of team members. Drawing on principles from decision theory, organizational behavior, and cognitive science, the framework conceptualizes TMT diversity not as inherently beneficial or detrimental, but as a contingent force whose effects depend on environmental complexity and internal team processes such as communication quality and psychological safety. The model advances existing literature by moving beyond static treatments of consensus and integrating probabilistic, process-based mechanisms into the study of executive decision-making. In doing so, it provides a theoretical foundation for designing interventions—such as structured dialogue, iterative planning, and trust-building initiatives—to enhance strategic alignment in diverse and uncertain contexts.